{UTF-8} ******************************************************** .Ranges ********************************************************~ Simulation Model to Accompany Sterman, J. D., R. Henderson, E. Beinhocker \ and L. Newman (2007). Getting Big Too Fast: Strategic Dynamics with \ Increasing Returns and Bounded Rationality. Management Science 53(4): \ 683-696. | i : F1, F2 ~ index ~ Index of firms in the industry | ******************************************************** .Parameters ********************************************************~ | Reference Industry Demand Elasticity = 0.2 ~ Dimensionless ~ Demand elasticity at the reference price | Reference Price = 1000 ~ $/Unit ~ Price at which the potential adopter population = the Reference Population | Reference Population = 6e+007 ~ Households ~ The reference household level is the number of households who would \ purchase the product at the reference price | Initial Diffusion Fraction = 0.001 ~ Dimensionless ~ Initial fraction of Industry Demand who are adopters | Reference Delivery Delay = 0.25 ~ Years ~ Reference value of delivery delay used in attractiveness formulation | Discount Rate = 0.04 ~ 1/Years ~ Rate at which profit is discounted | Sens of Attract to Availability = -4 ~ Dimensionless ~ | Sens of Attract to Price= -8 ~ Dimensionless ~ | Switch for Aggressive Strategy[i]= 1, 1 ~ Dimensionless [0,1,1] ~ Switch to determine which capacity strategy is used. 1 = Aggressive, 0 = \ Conservative | ******************************************************** .Diffusion ********************************************************~ | Adopters= INTEG ( Adoption Rate, Initial Adopters) ~ Households ~ The cumulative number of adopters of the product | Initial Adopters = Initial Diffusion Fraction * Industry Demand ~ Households ~ The initial cumulative number of adopters of the product | Adoption Rate = Nonadopters*(Innovator Adoption Fraction + WOM Strength*Adopters /Population) ~ Households/Year ~ The rate at which Households adopt the product | Innovator Adoption Fraction = 0.001 ~ 1/Years ~ The fractional rate per year that nonadopters adopt independent of WOM | WOM Strength = 1 ~ 1/Years ~ The strength of the word of mouth effect; probability per year of adoption \ given an encounter with an adopter | Nonadopters = Industry Demand - Adopters ~ Households ~ The number of Households in the population who have not adopted the product | ******************************************************** .Industry ********************************************************~ | Industry Order Rate = Initial Order Rate + Reorder Rate ~ Units/Year ~ total order rate for the product | Initial Order Rate = Adoption Rate * Units per Household ~ Units/Year ~ Rate of initial orders for product | Reorder Rate = SUM(Discard Rate[i!]) ~ Units/Year ~ Rate of reentry into the market | Units per Household = 1 ~ Units/Household ~ | Industry Demand = MIN(Population,Reference Population*MAX(0,1+Demand Curve Slope*(Lowest price -Reference Price)/Reference Population)) ~ Households ~ The number of households in the population who will in equilibrium choose to \ purchase the product as a function of the minimum price available in the \ market. The demand curve is linear, with slope calculated by selecting a \ reference point for price and population, and the demand elasticity at \ that point. | Population = 1e+008 ~ Households ~ The total population of potential adopters | Demand Curve Slope = (-Reference Population*Reference Industry Demand Elasticity)/(Reference Price ) ~ Households/($/Unit) ~ The slope of the industry demand curve, as a function of the price \ elasticity at the reference price level | Lowest price = VMIN(Price[i!]) ~ $/Unit ~ The lowest price available in the market | ******************************************************** .Market ********************************************************~ | Market Share[i] = Shipments[i]/Industry Shipments ~ Dimensionless ~ Share of shipments in units going to each firm | Industry Shipments = SUM(Shipments[i!]) ~ Units/Year ~ Total Rate of Industry Shipments | Order Share[i] = Attractiveness[i]/Total Attractiveness ~ Dimensionless ~ Fraction of orders going to firm i | Total Attractiveness = SUM(Attractiveness[i!]) ~ Dimensionless ~ Sum of attractiveness levels of all firms in market | Attractiveness[i] = Attractiveness from Price[i]*Attractiveness from Availability[i] ~ Dimensionless ~ Attractiveness of each firm is product of effects of price, availabilit | Attractiveness from Availability[i] = EXP(Sens of Attract to Availability*(Delivery Delay [i]/Reference Delivery Delay)) ~ Dimensionless ~ Effect of availability depends on delivery delay | Attractiveness from Price[i] = EXP(Sens of Attract to Price*(Price[i]/Reference Price )) ~ Dimensionless ~ Effect of price on attractiveness of firm i | ******************************************************** .Income ********************************************************~ | NPV Profit[i]= INTEG ( Change in NPV Profit[i], 0) ~ $ ~ Net Present Value of profit | Value of Backlog[i]= INTEG ( Value of New Orders[i] - Revenue[i], Price[i]*Backlog[i]) ~ $ ~ Value of the order backlog | NPV Industry Profits = SUM(NPV Profit[i!]) ~ $ ~ NPV of industry profits | Change in NPV Profit[i] = Profit[i]*Discount Factor ~ $/Year ~ Discounted profit | Discount Factor = EXP(-Discount Rate*Time) ~ Dimensionless ~ The ratio of future value to present value for a cash flow | Profit[i] = Revenue[i] - Cost[i] ~ $/Year ~ Net income of firm | Cost[i] = Variable Cost[i] + Fixed Cost[i] ~ $/Year ~ Total costs of firm | Fixed Cost[i] = Capacity[i] * Unit Fixed Cost[i] ~ $/Year ~ Fixed costs of firm (capacity costs) | Variable Cost[i] = Shipments[i] * Unit Variable Cost[i] ~ $/Year ~ Variable costs of firm | Revenue[i] = Average Price of Order Book[i]*Shipments[i] ~ $/Year ~ Revenues of the firm | Average Price of Order Book[i] = Value of Backlog[i]/Backlog[i] ~ $/Unit ~ Average price at which the orders in the backlog were booked. Customers \ pay the average price in effect at the time they placed their orders. | Value of New Orders[i] = Orders[i]*Price[i] ~ $/Year ~ $ value of the order rate | ******************************************************** .Learning ********************************************************~ | LC Strength[i]= 0.3, 0.3 ~ Dimensionless ~ Strength of Learning Curve, expressed as fractional reduction in unit \ costs per doubling of cumulative production. | Cumulative Production[i]= INTEG ( Production[i], Initial Production Experience[i]) ~ Units ~ Cumulative output of firm | Unit Fixed Cost[i] = Initial Unit Fixed Cost[i]*Learning[i] ~ $/Unit ~ Fixed cost per unit of capacity | Unit Variable Cost[i] = Initial Unit Variable Cost[i]*Learning[i] ~ $/Unit ~ Variable cost per unit shipped | Learning[i] = (Cumulative Production[i]/Initial Production Experience[i])^LC Exponent [i] ~ Dimensionless ~ Fractional cost reduction from learning curve | Initial Production Experience[i] = 1e+007 ~ Units ~ Initial cumulative output level for calibrating learning curve | Production[i] = Shipments[i] ~ Units/Year ~ Production = Shipments as there are no inventories in this model | LC Exponent[i]= LN(1-LC Strength[i])/LN(2) ~ Dimensionless ~ Exponent in the learning curve | Initial Unit Fixed Cost[i] = Initial Price[i]*Ratio of fixed to var cost[i]/((1+Normal Profit Margin [i])*(1+Ratio of fixed to var cost[i]/Normal Capacity Utilization[i])) ~ $/Unit ~ | Initial Unit Variable Cost[i] = Initial Price[i]/((1+Normal Profit Margin[i])*(1+Ratio of fixed to var cost [i]/Normal Capacity Utilization[i])) ~ $/Unit ~ | Ratio of fixed to var cost[i] = 3, 3 ~ Dimensionless ~ | ******************************************************** .Price ********************************************************~ | Price Adjustment Time[i] = 0.25, 0.25 ~ Years ~ Time to adjust price to targe level | Target Price[i]= MAX(Unit Variable Cost[i],Price[i]* (1+Sens of Price to Costs[i]*((Base Price[i]/Price[i])-1))* (1+Sens of Price to DS Balance[i]*(DemandSupply Balance[i]-1))* (1+Sens of Price to Share[i]*(Target Market Share[i]-Market Share[i]))) ~ $/Unit ~ Price indicated by costs, competition, demand/supply balance, and market \ share relative to the firm's target share. | Price[i]= INTEG ( Change in Price[i], Initial Price[i]) ~ $/Unit ~ | Initial Price[i] = 1000, 1000 ~ $/Unit ~ Initial price of product | Change in Price[i] = (Target Price[i] - Price[i])/Price Adjustment Time[i] ~ $/Unit/Year ~ Change in price of product | Base Price[i] = (1+Normal Profit Margin[i])* (Unit Variable Cost[i]+Unit Fixed Cost[i]/Normal Capacity Utilization[i]) ~ $/Unit ~ Price indicated by unit costs, normal profit margin, and normal capacity \ utilization rate | Unit Costs[i] = (Unit Variable Cost[i]+Unit Fixed Cost[i]/Normal Capacity Utilization [i]) ~ $/Unit ~ Unit costs at normal capacity utilization | DemandSupply Balance[i] = (Desired Shipments[i]/Normal Capacity Utilization[i])/Capacity [i] ~ Dimensionless ~ Ratio of desired shipments to capacity, adjusted for normal capacity \ utilization | Sens of Price to DS Balance[i] = 0.25, 0.25 ~ Dimensionless ~ Sensitivity of Price to Demand/Supply Balance | Sens of Price to Costs[i] = 1, 1 ~ Dmnl ~ | Sens of Price to Share[i] =0.1, 0.1 ~ Dmnl ~ | Normal Profit Margin[i] = 0.2, 0.2 ~ Dimensionless ~ | Profit Margin[i] = (Price[i]/Unit Costs[i]) - 1 ~ Dimensionless ~ Profit margin assuming normal capacity utilization | ******************************************************** .Orders ********************************************************~ | Backlog[i]= INTEG ( Orders[i] - Shipments[i], 0.5*Industry Order Rate*Normal Delivery Delay [i]) ~ Units ~ Backlog of unfilled orders for the firm's product | Installed Base[i]= INTEG ( Shipments[i] - Discard Rate[i], 0.5*Units per Household*Adopters) ~ Units ~ | Orders[i] = Industry Order Rate*Order Share[i] ~ Units/Year ~ | Shipments[i]= Switch for Capacity*MIN(Desired Shipments[i],Capacity[i]) + (1-Switch for Capacity)*\ Desired Shipments[i] ~ Units/Year ~ Shipments are the minimum of desired shipments or capacity. Switch for \ capacity = 0 -> shipments = desired shipments at all times. | Discard Rate[i] = Installed Base[i]/Useful Life ~ Units/Year ~ | Useful Life = 10 ~ Years ~ | Delivery Delay[i] = Backlog[i]/Shipments[i] ~ Years ~ Average Time between placing and receiving an order | Desired Shipments[i] = Backlog[i]/Normal Delivery Delay[i] ~ Units/Year ~ Rate of shipments needed to deliver orders with average delay equal to the \ normal delivery delay | Normal Delivery Delay[i] = 0.25, 0.25 ~ Years ~ | Switch for Capacity = 1 ~ Dimensionless [0,1,1] ~ 1 = Capacity constrains shipments; 0 = shipments = desired shipments | ******************************************************** .Capacity ********************************************************~ | Capacity Lag= 1 ~ Dmnl ~ Scalar multiplier on the base capacity lag that changes the capacity \ acquisition delay for all firms by the same multiple. | Capacity[i]= IF THEN ELSE(Switch For Perfect Capacity = 1, Desired Shipments[i]/Normal Capacity Utilization[i], SMOOTH3I(Target Capacity[i], Capacity Acquisition Delay[i]*Capacity Lag, 0.5*Industry Order Rate\ / Normal Capacity Utilization[i])) ~ Units/Year ~ Production Capacity of the firm. | Industry Normal Production = SUM(Normal Production[i!]) ~ Units/Year ~ Industry normal production given industry capacity and normal capacity \ utilization rate | Normal Production[i] = Capacity[i] * Normal Capacity Utilization[i] ~ Units/Year ~ Normal rate of production, given capacity and normal rate of utilization | Adequacy of Capacity[i] = (Capacity[i] - Desired Shipments[i]/Normal Capacity Utilization [i])/Capacity[i] ~ Dimensionless ~ Difference between capacity and desired capacity, given normal \ utilization, as percent of capacity | Normal Capacity Utilization[i] = 0.8, 0.8 ~ Dimensionless ~ | Capacity Utilization[i] = Shipments[i]/Capacity[i] ~ Dimensionless ~ Ratio of shipments to capacity | Switch For Perfect Capacity = 0 ~ Dimensionless [0,1,1] ~ 1 -> Capacity always = desired shipments/normal utilization; 0 -> capacity \ adjusts with lag to target | Capacity Acquisition Delay[i] = 1, 1 ~ Years ~ The average delay in acquiring or discharging capacity | Target Normal Production[i] = Normal Capacity Utilization[i] * Target Capacity[i] ~ Units/Year ~ | ******************************************************** .Target ********************************************************~ | Target Capacity[i]= MAX(Minimum Efficient Scale[i], Target Market Share[i]*Expected Industry Demand[i]/Normal Capacity Utilization\ [i]) ~ Units/Year ~ Capacity Target of the firm is the greater of the minimum efficient scale \ or the capacity needed to supply the firm's target share of the demand \ they forecast, adjusted for normal capacity utilization. | Target Market Share[i]= Switch for Aggressive Strategy[i]*MAX(Desired Market Share[i],Uncontested Market Share\ [i])+ (1 - Switch for Aggressive Strategy[i])*MIN(Desired Market Share[i],Uncontested Market Share\ [i]) ~ Dimensionless ~ Target Market Share is determined by either the aggressive or conservative \ strategy. The Aggressive firm seems the larger of its desired share or \ the uncontested share. The conservative firm seeks the lesser of its \ desired share or the uncontested share. | Minimum Efficient Scale[i] = 100000, 100000 ~ Units/Year ~ Minimum efficient scale for operations | Desired Market Share[i] = 0.5, 0.5 ~ Dimensionless ~ Share of Market firm seeks before considering competitor actions | Uncontested Market Share[i] = Uncontested Demand[i]/Expected Industry Demand[i] ~ Dimensionless ~ The share of the market the firm expects to be unconstested based on \ expected uncontested demand and forecasted industry capacity | Uncontested Demand[i] = MAX(0,Expected Industry Demand[i]-Expected Comp Capacity[i]) ~ Units/Year ~ Portion of expected industry demand firm believes competition is not \ planning to build capacity to serve | Expected Comp Capacity[i] = Normal Capacity Utilization[i]* (Weight on Supply Line[i]*Perceived Comp Target Capacity[i]+(1-Weight on Supply Line [i])*Competitor Capacity[i]) ~ Units/Year ~ The capacity of the competitor expected by the firm | Competitor Capacity[i] = Industry Capacity - Capacity[i] ~ Units/Year ~ The capacity of the competitor; calculated as total industry capacity less \ the firm's capacity | Industry Capacity = SUM(Capacity[i!]) ~ Units/Year ~ Total industry capacity | Perceived Comp Target Capacity[F1]=SMOOTHI(Target Capacity[F2],Time to Perceive Comp Target Capacity [F1],Capacity[F1]) ~~| Perceived Comp Target Capacity[F2]=SMOOTHI(Target Capacity[F1],Time to Perceive Comp Target Capacity [F2],Capacity[F2]) ~ Units/Year ~ Firm's perception of the competitor's target capacity | Time to Perceive Comp Target Capacity[i] = 0.25, 0.25 ~ Years ~ Time required to estimate competitor capacity plans | Weight on Supply Line[i] = 1, 1 ~ Dimensionless ~ Weight = 0 -> firm ignores/is unaware of competitor capacity goal; Weight = 1 -> firm knows competitor target capacity (with short \ perception delay and uses it to assess uncontested demand | Expected Industry Demand[i] = Reported Industry Volume[i]*EXP(Forecast Horizon[i]*Capacity Acquisition Delay [i]*Exp Growth in Volume[i]) ~ Units/Year ~ Firm's forecast of demand | Forecast Horizon[i] = 1, 1 ~ Dimensionless ~ Firm's forecast horizion - how far ahead do they project demand as a \ fraction of the capacity acquisition delay? | Exp Growth in Volume[i] = LN(Reported Industry Volume[i]/Lagged Industry Volume[i])/Time for Historical Volume [i] ~ 1/Years ~ Expected growth rate in Industry Volume, based on discrete delay (compound \ rate over last 1 year) | Time for Historical Volume[i] = 1, 1 ~ Years ~ Time horizon for smoothing past demand in calculating growth rate for \ forecasts | Lagged Industry Volume[i] = DELAY INFORMATION(Reported Industry Volume[i],Time for Historical Volume [i],Reported Industry Volume[i]) ~ Units/Year ~ Industry volume lagged by the forecast horizon used to compute forecasted \ growth rate | Reported Industry Volume[i] = SMOOTH(Industry Volume[i], Volume Reporting Delay) ~ Units/Year ~ Reported industry volume is actual volume delayed by the time required for \ market researchers to gather and publish data | Volume Reporting Delay = 0.25 ~ Years ~ Time required to gather and report information on industry volume | Industry Volume[i] = MAX(Initial Demand Forecast[i], Switch for Shipments in Forecasts*Industry Shipments+ (1-Switch for Shipments in Forecasts)*Industry Order Rate) ~ Units/Year ~ Firm's estimate of industry volume, based either on shipments or orders | Switch for Shipments in Forecasts = 0 ~ Dimensionless ~ 1 -> Industry shipments used in demand forecasts; 0 -> Industry orders used in demand forecasts | Initial Demand Forecast[i] =Reorder Rate ~ Units/Year ~ Firm's initial forecast of market demand | Forecast Error[i] = (Lagged Volume Forecast[i] - Industry Volume[i])/(1e-009+Industry Volume [i]) ~ Dimensionless ~ Error between actual and forecasted industry volume | Lagged Volume Forecast[i] = DELAY INFORMATION(Expected Industry Demand[i],Capacity Acquisition Delay [i], Expected Industry Demand[i]) ~ Units/Year ~ Lagged forecast used to compute forecast error | ******************************************************** .Control ********************************************************~ Simulation Control Paramaters | FINAL TIME = 40 ~ Years ~ The final time for the simulation. | INITIAL TIME = 0 ~ Years ~ The initial time for the simulation. | SAVEPER = TIME STEP ~ Years ~ The frequency with which output is stored. | TIME STEP = 0.0625 ~ Years ~ The time step for the simulation. | \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *Parameters $192-192-192,0,Helvetica|12|B|0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,66,0 10,1,Reference Delivery Delay,223,118,113,16,8,130,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,2,Reference Industry Demand Elasticity,822,253,165,24,8,130,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12|B|128-128-128 10,3,Reference Population,221,252,109,17,8,130,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,4,Reference Price,221,183,97,15,8,130,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,5,Initial Diffusion Fraction,495,119,108,21,8,130,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,6,Discount Rate,1353,261,73,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,7,Sens of Attract to Availability,500,180,132,15,8,130,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,8,Sens of Attract to Price,497,251,123,20,8,130,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12|B|128-128-128 10,9,Switch for Aggressive Strategy,1359,195,148,19,8,130,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 12,10,7143712,286,504,200,200,3,44,0,0,1,0,0,0 Industry_and_Firm_Demand 12,11,7667918,694,504,200,200,3,44,0,0,1,0,0,0 Market_Share_Firm_1 12,12,9240842,288,907,200,200,3,44,0,0,1,0,0,0 Capacity_Utilization 12,13,3736538,694,908,200,200,3,44,0,0,1,0,0,0 Capacity_Firm_1 10,14,LC Strength,769,121,60,9,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,15,WOM Strength,778,186,69,9,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,16,Useful Life,1089,255,53,9,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 12,17,3736550,1098,504,200,200,3,44,0,0,1,0,0,0 Price_and_Unit_Costs 12,18,852872,1098,910,200,200,3,44,0,0,1,0,0,0 Price 10,19,Switch For Perfect Capacity,1050,129,127,21,8,130,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,20,Capacity Lag,1054,192,75,15,8,130,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 12,21,787338,1477,504,178,200,3,188,0,0,1,0,0,0 Profit 10,22,Desired Market Share,1345,137,117,14,8,130,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *Diffusion $192-192-192,0,Helvetica|12|B|0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,100,0 10,1,Adopters,689,369,53,27,3,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,2,Initial Adopters,685,242,63,9,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 12,3,0,451,374,2,11,0,3,0,1,-1,0,0,0,255-255-255,0-0-0,|12||0-0-0 1,4,6,1,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(596,373)| 1,5,6,3,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(497,373)| 11,6,0,549,373,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,7,Adoption Rate,549,406,63,23,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,8,1,7,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(637,422)| 10,9,Innovator Adoption Fraction,407,516,43,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,10,9,7,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(481,476)| 10,11,Nonadopters,397,372,56,27,3,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,12,11,7,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(436,410)| 10,13,Population,543,553,49,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,14,13,7,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(545,492)| 10,15,WOM Strength,667,520,64,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,16,15,7,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(605,476)| 1,17,1,11,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(552,293)| 10,18,Industry Demand,301,245,67,24,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,19,18,11,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(321,305)| 10,20,Demand Curve Slope,169,190,59,23,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,21,20,18,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(212,218)| 10,22,Lowest price,441,105,57,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,23,22,18,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(364,149)| 10,24,Reference Population,111,276,49,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,25,24,18,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(190,263)| 10,26,Reference Price,249,104,71,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,27,26,18,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(270,161)| 10,28,Reference Industry Demand Elasticity,79,104,76,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,29,28,20,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(92,146)| 1,30,24,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(133,241)| 1,31,26,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(219,135)| 10,32,Price,729,37,36,11,8,2,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,33,32,22,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(559,48)| 10,34,Population,224,369,60,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,35,34,18,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(254,319)| 1,36,18,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(488,243)| 10,37,Initial Diffusion Fraction,685,154,41,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,38,37,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(685,199)| 1,39,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,64,1,-1--1--1,,1|(686,289)| \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *Industry Demand $192-192-192,0,Helvetica|12|B|0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,100,0 10,1,Industry Order Rate,471,384,49,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,2,Initial Order Rate,667,380,76,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,3,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(564,381)| 10,4,Reorder Rate,471,291,59,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,5,4,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(471,324)| 10,6,Installed Base,471,124,53,27,3,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,7,6,19,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(512,172)| 10,8,Useful Life,712,201,49,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,9,8,19,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(647,183)| 12,10,48,267,125,13,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,11,13,6,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(387,125)| 1,12,13,10,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(309,125)| 11,13,48,348,125,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,14,Shipments,348,147,48,11,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 12,15,48,679,125,13,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,16,18,15,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(633,125)| 1,17,18,6,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(555,125)| 11,18,48,595,125,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,19,Discard Rate,595,147,57,11,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,20,19,4,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(579,217)| 10,21,Capacity,143,159,51,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,22,21,14,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(232,160)| 10,23,Desired Shipments,279,267,55,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,24,23,14,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(335,215)| 10,25,Switch for Capacity,137,221,52,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,26,25,14,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(239,195)| 10,27,Adoption Rate,763,459,73,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,28,27,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(721,424)| 10,29,Units per Household,756,309,49,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,30,29,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(715,341)| 10,31,Adopters,471,167,48,9,8,2,1,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,32,31,6,0,1,0,0,0,64,1,-1--1--1,,1|(471,163)| 1,33,29,6,0,1,0,0,0,64,1,-1--1--1,,1|(627,225)| \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *Market $192-192-192,0,Helvetica|12|B|0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,100,0 10,1,Market Share,593,856,60,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,2,Industry Shipments,383,856,48,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,3,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(472,856)| 10,4,Shipments,485,733,48,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,5,4,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(532,787)| 10,6,Capacity,333,701,51,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,7,6,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(401,715)| 10,8,Desired Shipments,487,649,55,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,9,8,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(485,685)| 10,10,Switch for Capacity,636,704,52,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,11,10,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(567,716)| 1,12,4,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(443,784)| 10,13,Order Share,608,432,56,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,14,Attractiveness,496,332,63,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,15,14,13,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(544,375)| 10,16,Total Attractiveness,383,429,64,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,17,16,13,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(489,429)| 1,18,14,16,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(449,371)| 10,19,Attractiveness from Availability,317,268,73,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,20,19,14,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(405,300)| 10,21,Attractiveness from Price,665,267,64,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,22,21,14,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(580,299)| 10,23,Delivery Delay,315,132,76,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,24,23,19,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(315,187)| 10,25,Reference Delivery Delay,129,220,67,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,26,25,19,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(213,240)| 10,27,Sens of Attract to Availability,129,309,67,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,28,27,19,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(211,292)| 10,29,Price,664,128,36,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,30,29,21,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(664,184)| 10,31,Reference Price,825,201,71,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,32,31,21,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(761,225)| 10,33,Sens of Attract to Price,837,311,67,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,34,33,21,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(759,291)| \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *Net Income $192-192-192,0,Helvetica|12|B|0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,75,0 10,1,NPV Industry Profits,815,80,59,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,2,NPV Profit,621,75,53,27,3,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,3,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(705,76)| 12,4,48,431,68,13,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,5,7,2,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(539,71)| 1,6,7,4,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(469,71)| 11,7,48,503,71,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,8,Change in NPV Profit,503,104,51,23,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,9,Discount Factor,495,183,69,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,10,9,8,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(496,157)| 10,11,Profit,739,359,25,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,12,Discount Rate,392,257,63,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,13,12,9,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(435,225)| 10,14,Time,547,255,35,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,15,14,9,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(525,225)| 10,16,Cost,876,423,23,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,17,16,11,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(797,407)| 1,18,11,8,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(684,225)| 10,19,Fixed Cost,1009,536,48,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,20,19,16,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(949,485)| 10,21,Variable Cost,771,541,61,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,22,21,16,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(816,488)| 1,23,60,21,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(683,640)| 10,24,Unit Variable Cost,793,644,65,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,25,24,21,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(829,585)| 10,26,Capacity,1127,640,51,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,27,26,19,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1085,581)| 10,28,Unit Fixed Cost,973,645,67,21,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,29,28,19,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(968,587)| 10,30,Average Price of Order Book,480,509,64,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,31,30,39,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(529,464)| 1,32,50,30,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(439,563)| 10,33,Value of Backlog,431,379,53,27,3,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,34,33,30,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(425,441)| 12,35,48,635,381,13,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,36,38,35,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(589,379)| 1,37,38,33,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(512,379)| 11,38,48,549,379,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,39,Revenue,549,400,40,11,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,40,39,11,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(641,416)| 12,41,48,243,380,13,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,42,44,33,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(348,380)| 1,43,44,41,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(279,380)| 11,44,48,311,380,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,45,Value of New Orders,311,419,51,28,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,46,Orders,209,527,43,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,47,46,45,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(269,503)| 10,48,Price,204,443,36,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,49,48,45,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(245,460)| 10,50,Backlog,433,637,53,27,3,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 12,51,48,237,640,13,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,52,54,50,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(345,639)| 1,53,54,51,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(273,639)| 11,54,48,304,639,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,55,Orders,304,667,43,17,40,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 12,56,48,636,637,13,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,57,59,56,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(591,637)| 1,58,59,50,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(515,637)| 11,59,48,551,637,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,60,Shipments,551,665,60,17,40,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,61,59,39,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(579,571)| 1,62,50,33,0,9,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(432,516)| 1,63,48,33,0,9,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(299,415)| 10,64,Industry Order Rate,525,751,55,17,8,2,9,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,65,64,50,0,9,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(488,705)| 10,66,Normal Delivery Delay,363,752,39,25,8,2,9,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,67,66,50,0,9,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(391,703)| \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *Learning Curve $192-192-192,0,Helvetica|12|B|0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,75,0 10,1,Unit Fixed Cost,648,153,68,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,2,Initial Unit Fixed Cost,874,241,48,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,3,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(760,196)| 10,4,Learning,462,335,41,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,5,4,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(549,248)| 10,6,Initial Price,967,338,52,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,7,6,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(928,297)| 10,8,Normal Capacity Utilization,1100,341,47,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,9,8,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(988,292)| 10,10,Normal Profit Margin,630,341,60,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,11,10,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(745,293)| 10,12,Ratio of fixed to var cost,794,339,60,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,13,12,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(829,295)| 10,14,Cumulative Production,290,334,53,27,3,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,15,14,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(375,334)| 10,16,Initial Production Experience,418,447,52,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,17,16,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(439,390)| 10,18,LC Exponent,439,271,57,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,19,18,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(447,296)| 10,20,Shipments,134,438,59,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,21,20,26,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(149,407)| 12,22,48,103,331,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,23,25,14,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(210,331)| 1,24,25,22,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(140,331)| 11,25,48,176,331,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,26,Production,176,359,48,17,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,27,16,14,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(360,396)| 10,28,LC Strength,376,202,55,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,29,28,18,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(402,230)| 10,30,Unit Variable Cost,660,545,60,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,31,Initial Unit Variable Cost,880,441,61,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,32,31,30,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(776,490)| 1,33,4,30,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(552,431)| 1,34,6,31,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(930,381)| 1,35,8,31,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(991,390)| 1,36,10,31,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(748,388)| 1,37,12,31,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(832,384)| \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *Price $192-192-192,0,Helvetica|12|B|0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,75,0 10,1,Price,697,243,53,27,3,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,2,1,11,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(640,320)| 10,3,Price Adjustment Time,396,327,76,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,4,3,11,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(473,303)| 10,5,Target Price,632,431,60,21,8,131,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,6,5,11,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(536,356)| 12,7,48,483,239,13,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,8,10,1,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(611,244)| 1,9,10,7,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(528,244)| 11,10,48,569,244,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,11,Change in Price,569,275,57,20,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,12,Initial Price,689,35,52,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,13,31,5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(673,536)| 1,14,1,5,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(728,343)| 10,15,Sens of Price to Costs,877,393,61,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,16,15,5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(763,409)| 10,17,Sens of Price to DS Balance,551,621,72,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,18,17,5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(585,536)| 10,19,Sens of Price to Share,396,431,61,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,20,19,5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(505,431)| 1,21,29,5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(723,497)| 10,22,Base Price,919,485,49,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,23,Normal Capacity Utilization,917,624,47,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,24,23,22,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(917,556)| 10,25,Normal Profit Margin,1111,487,60,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,26,25,22,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1017,485)| 10,27,Unit Fixed Cost,1079,561,79,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,28,27,22,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1007,527)| 10,29,Unit Variable Cost,793,549,65,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,30,29,22,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(853,517)| 10,31,DemandSupply Balance,707,620,69,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,32,Capacity,783,751,51,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,33,32,31,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(751,697)| 10,34,Desired Shipments,636,749,55,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,35,34,31,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(665,692)| 1,36,23,31,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(832,621)| 10,37,Unit Costs,343,119,47,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,38,Unit Fixed Cost,212,56,79,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,39,Unit Variable Cost,200,169,65,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,40,38,37,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(268,83)| 1,41,39,37,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(271,143)| 10,42,Normal Capacity Utilization,339,232,52,25,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,43,42,37,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(339,176)| 10,44,Market Share,359,523,71,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,45,Target Market Share,399,591,68,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,46,Profit Margin,544,124,57,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,47,1,46,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(617,180)| 1,48,37,46,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(428,119)| 1,49,44,5,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(471,484)| 1,50,45,5,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(503,517)| 1,51,22,5,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(789,460)| 1,52,12,1,0,0,0,0,0,64,1,-1--1--1,,1|(692,121)| \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *Orders $192-192-192,0,Helvetica|12|B|0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,100,0 10,1,Backlog,333,308,53,27,3,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 12,2,48,136,308,13,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,3,5,1,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(251,308)| 1,4,5,2,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(177,308)| 11,5,48,215,308,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,6,Orders,215,329,32,11,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,7,9,24,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(533,307)| 1,8,9,1,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(424,307)| 11,9,1404,471,307,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,10,Shipments,471,328,48,11,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,11,Industry Order Rate,77,372,55,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,12,11,6,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(148,349)| 10,13,Order Share,79,477,67,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,14,13,6,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(139,409)| 10,15,Capacity,661,465,51,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,16,15,10,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(576,385)| 10,17,Desired Shipments,400,456,48,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,18,17,10,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(459,401)| 10,19,Switch for Capacity,529,463,45,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,20,19,10,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(511,391)| 1,21,1,17,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(316,388)| 10,22,Normal Delivery Delay,447,557,67,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,23,22,17,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(427,515)| 10,24,Installed Base,641,311,53,27,3,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 12,25,48,865,309,13,11,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,26,28,25,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(816,309)| 1,27,28,24,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(729,309)| 11,28,48,773,309,8,11,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,29,Discard Rate,773,331,57,11,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,30,24,29,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(675,368)| 10,31,Useful Life,841,424,49,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,32,31,29,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(812,384)| 10,33,Adopters,643,104,57,17,8,2,9,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,34,Units per Household,639,32,55,17,8,2,9,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,35,Delivery Delay,408,201,65,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,36,1,35,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(339,233)| 1,37,9,35,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(475,268)| 1,38,11,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(196,341)| 1,39,22,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(396,445)| 1,40,33,24,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(641,193)| 1,41,34,24,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(639,157)| \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *Capacity $192-192-192,0,Helvetica|12|B|0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,100,0 10,1,Industry Normal Production,419,68,49,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,2,Normal Production,416,195,49,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,3,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(416,142)| 10,4,Capacity,417,309,53,27,3,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,5,4,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(416,253)| 10,6,Normal Capacity Utilization,243,193,47,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,7,6,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(321,193)| 10,8,Capacity Acquisition Delay,605,308,51,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,9,8,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(519,308)| 10,10,Desired Shipments,192,353,55,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,11,10,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(298,332)| 10,12,Industry Order Rate,269,487,55,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,13,12,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(334,408)| 1,14,6,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(322,246)| 10,15,Switch For Perfect Capacity,593,408,48,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,16,15,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(513,362)| 10,17,Target Capacity,109,459,45,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,18,17,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(247,391)| 10,19,Target Normal Production,109,76,64,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,20,6,19,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(176,135)| 1,21,17,19,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(109,274)| 10,22,Capacity Utilization,433,459,47,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,23,4,22,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(424,382)| 10,24,Shipments,447,556,59,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12|B|128-128-128 1,25,24,22,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(441,517)| 10,26,Adequacy of Capacity,217,291,56,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,27,4,26,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(325,301)| 1,28,10,26,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(201,328)| 1,29,6,26,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(230,239)| 10,30,Capacity Lag,607,232,52,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,31,30,4,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(531,262)| \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *Target Capacity $192-192-192,0,Helvetica|12|B|0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,75,0 10,1,Target Capacity,764,335,71,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,2,Minimum Efficient Scale,995,299,65,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,3,2,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(869,296)| 10,4,Expected Industry Demand,1104,439,48,25,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,5,Normal Capacity Utilization,545,445,47,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,6,Target Market Share,796,468,61,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,7,Desired Market Share,793,571,61,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,8,7,6,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(793,526)| 10,9,Uncontested Market Share,964,507,61,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,10,9,6,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(886,489)| 10,11,Switch for Aggressive Strategy,643,532,47,24,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,12,4,9,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1036,496)| 10,13,Uncontested Demand,779,675,57,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,14,13,9,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(904,613)| 10,15,Expected Comp Capacity,471,595,43,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,16,15,13,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(605,649)| 1,17,4,13,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(980,660)| 10,18,Competitor Capacity,288,635,49,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,19,18,15,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(375,616)| 1,20,5,15,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(511,513)| 10,21,Perceived Comp Target Capacity,285,489,75,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,22,21,15,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(364,534)| 10,23,Weight on Supply Line,467,743,55,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,24,23,15,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(468,679)| 10,25,Capacity,117,691,51,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,26,25,18,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(187,667)| 10,27,Industry Capacity,285,743,77,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,28,27,18,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(285,698)| 1,29,25,27,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(193,714)| 1,30,25,21,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(193,598)| 1,31,1,21,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(489,340)| 10,32,Time to Perceive Comp Target Capacity,155,421,76,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,33,32,21,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(220,455)| 1,34,11,6,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(716,501)| 1,35,4,1,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(934,387)| 1,36,5,1,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(660,387)| 1,37,6,1,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(780,405)| \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *Expected Industry Demand $192-192-192,0,Helvetica|12|B|0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,75,0 10,1,Expected Industry Demand,751,432,43,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,2,Capacity Acquisition Delay,743,565,51,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,3,2,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(745,507)| 10,4,Exp Growth in Volume,499,584,63,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,5,4,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(609,516)| 10,6,Forecast Horizon,676,321,76,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,7,6,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(703,361)| 10,8,Reported Industry Volume,495,371,41,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,9,8,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(612,397)| 10,10,Industry Volume,337,303,72,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,11,10,8,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(399,328)| 10,12,Volume Reporting Delay,535,255,44,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,13,12,8,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(517,303)| 10,14,Industry Order Rate,81,393,55,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,15,14,10,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(208,347)| 10,16,Industry Shipments,84,300,55,17,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,17,16,10,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(192,300)| 10,18,Initial Demand Forecast,291,217,65,17,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,19,18,10,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(311,255)| 10,20,Switch for Shipments in Forecasts,213,456,60,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,21,20,10,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(275,379)| 10,22,Reorder Rate,88,200,69,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,23,22,18,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(181,207)| 10,24,Lagged Industry Volume,355,460,37,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,25,24,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(423,519)| 1,26,8,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(495,472)| 10,27,Time for Historical Volume,355,600,44,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,28,27,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(408,593)| 1,29,8,24,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(431,411)| 1,30,27,24,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(355,539)| 10,31,Forecast Error,623,177,64,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,32,10,31,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(461,217)| 10,33,Lagged Volume Forecast,891,275,40,25,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,34,33,31,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(781,211)| 1,35,2,33,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(885,428)| 1,36,1,33,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(821,365)| ///---\\\ :GRAPH Market_Share_Firm_1 :TITLE Market Share Firm 1 :X-AXIS time :SCALE :VAR Market Share[F1] :GRAPH Industry_and_Firm_Demand :TITLE Industry and Firm Orders :X-AXIS time :SCALE :VAR Industry Order Rate :VAR Orders[i] :GRAPH Price :TITLE Price :X-AXIS time :SCALE :VAR Price[F1] :VAR price[F2] :GRAPH Price_and_Unit_Costs :TITLE Price and Unit Costs Firm 1 :X-AXIS time :SCALE :VAR Price[f1] :VAR Unit costs[f1] :GRAPH Price_and_Unit_Costs_2 :TITLE Price and Unit Costs Firm 2 :X-AXIS time :SCALE :VAR Price[f2] :VAR Unit costs[f2] :GRAPH Capacity_Firm_1 :TITLE Capacity Firm 1 :X-AXIS time :SCALE :VAR Capacity[f1] :VAR Desired shipments[f1] :VAR orders[f1] :GRAPH Capacity_Utilization :TITLE Capacity Utilization :X-AXIS time :SCALE :VAR Capacity Utilization[f1] :VAR Capacity Utilization[f2] :GRAPH Profit :TITLE Profit :X-AXIS time :SCALE :VAR Profit[f1] :VAR Profit[f2] :L<%^E!@ 1:test.vdf 9:test 22:household,households 22:unit,units 22:year,years 15:0,0,0,0,0,0 19:66,0 27:2, 34:0, 4:Time 5:Industry Normal Production 24:0 25:40 26:40 6:F1